Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Black Swan Tuesday: NORKalypse

All of a sudden - there is no DPRK. What next?

Like the collapse of the Berlin Wall, there will be subtle hints it might happen, but when it does happen - it will be sudden, shocking, and will mark a firm moment when the security situation in that part of the world drastically changes.

Over at SmallWarsJournal, David S. Maxwell outlines four possible causes of a NORK collapse and subsequent reunification.
Unification of Korea is the only acceptable outcome on the Korean Peninsula. It is the only condition that will solve three of the most intractable problems in Northeast Asia: (1) the Kim family regime’s nuclear threat; (2) the human rights atrocities and crimes against humanity that have been perpetrated on the Korean people living in the north each and every day for the past six decades; and (3) the achievement peace and prosperity in the region. It is only through unification described as “a stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people,” that can bring security and stability to Northeast Asia.

There are four paths to unification: peaceful, internal regime change, regime collapse, and war.
Full article is at: